Optimal bus fleet management strategy for emissions reduction

Transportation is a major cause for environmental degradation via exhaust emissions. For many transit-oriented metropolitan areas, bus trips often constitute a sizeable mode share. Managing the bus fleet, in particular updating buses to comply with the newer emissions standards, therefore, can have a substantial impact on transportation-induced air quality. This paper presents the approach of remaining life additional benefit–cost (RLABC) analysis for maximising the total net benefit by either early-retiring or retrofitting the current bus fleet within their lifespans. By referring to the net benefits for different bus types estimated by RLABC analysis, the most beneficial management scheme for the current bus fleet can be identified. Optimal bus fleet management (BFM) models based on the RLABC analysis for the operator and the government are developed. Then a government subsidy plan is produced to achieve win–win solutions, which will offer efficient and flexible management schemes. To illustrate the approach, the largest bus company in Hong Kong, which carries more than 23% of the total trips in Hong Kong, is taken as a case study example. Instead of adopting a fixed retirement plan, such as replacing buses at the age of 17 as is currently practised, the proposed method develops an optimal BFM scheme that progressively phases out buses or retrofits them. This study produces promising results to demonstrate the large benefit of this approach for optimal bus fleet management.     

The use of gait parameters to evaluate pedestrian behavior at scramble phase signalized intersections

Pedestrian scramble phasing is usually implemented to reduce pedestrian‐vehicle conflicts and therefore increase the safety of the intersection. However, to adequately determine the benefits of scramble phasing, it is necessary to understand how pedestrians react to such an unconventional design. This study investigates changes in pedestrian crossing behavior following the implementation of a scramble phase by examining the spatiotemporal gait parameters (step length and step frequency). This detailed microscopic‐level analysis provides insight into changes in pedestrian walking mechanisms as well as the effect of various pedestrian and intersection characteristics. The study uses video data collected at a scramble phase signalized intersection in Oakland, California. Gait parameters were found to be influenced by pedestrian gender, age, group size, crosswalk length, and pedestrian signal indications. Both average step length and walking speed were significantly higher for diagonally crossing pedestrians compared with pedestrians crossing on the conventional crosswalks. Pedestrians were found to have the tendency to increase their step length more than their step frequency to increase walking speed. It was also found that, compared with men, women generally increase their walking speed by increasing their step frequency more than step length. However, when in non‐compliance with signal indications, women increase their walking speed by increasing their step length more than step frequency. It was also found that older pedestrians do not significantly change their walking behavior when in non‐compliance with signal indications. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A list of accident scenarios for three legs skewed intersections

The term ‘scenario’ is used in the safety field to designate a prototype or a model of an accident process characterised by chains of facts, actions, causal relations and consequences in terms of damage to people and property. The prototypical scenarios, properly realized, provide a basis on which to consider the action to be taken, but also a concrete backup for accident information for use in information campaigns or training. The objective of this study is to define the prototypical accident scenarios for a particular configuration of road intersection: the skewed intersection. Limited sight distance at skewed intersections leads to safety issues. A non-skewed intersection provides the best operating conditions as drivers can easily sense the direction in which they are travelling, estimate the speeds of the opposing traffic and smoothly complete a maneuver in shorter time. In skewed intersections, instead, the ability of drivers to recognize any conflicting vehicles diminishes in comparison to right-angle intersections. The logical-deductive approach used in this paper for the determination of accident scenarios is based on an analysis of a large database of incidents, which occurred on several roads in eastern Sicily on 35 skewed intersections at three-legs. The skew angle of the minor leg of all the intersections studied is between 15° and 20°. This research allowed to develop accident scenarios related to particular configurations of intersections, compatible with the Italian rules. Prototypical scenarios are constructed using samples of accidents occurring on a particular type of study area, especially when they are based on files from in-depth investigations. The method used is an inductive approach, based on an examination of each case, grouping together similar cases and building a prototypical scenario using this case grouping. From the in-depth analysis of database accidents 9 prototypical accident scenarios have been identified for the skewed intersections.     

Factors with the greatest influence on drivers' judgment of roundabouts safety. An analysis based on web survey in Italy

The aim of this paper is to identify the roundabout geometric characteristics affecting the safety perception while the typical maneuvers (entry, circulation, exit) are being carried out. The tool used was an on-line questionnaire, filled out by about 1.650 respondents. Four different dimensionality reduction methods (Cluster Analysis, Correspondence Analysis, Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis) were used to analyze the data collected from the survey, in order to examine the key factors affecting the safety perception during the typical roundabout maneuvers. The considerations arising from the final model are the following: 1) the respondents' opinions regarding the safety perception of maneuvers are not preconceived ideas, but they originate from specific safety perceptions due to roundabout geometric configurations; 2) the users prefer definitely single lane roundabouts; this is an important confirmation of most results in the literature; 3) it was quantified the extent of the relationship between the safety perception of the typical roundabout maneuvers and the following aspects: a) maneuver type, b) geometric characteristics of the roundabouts design elements. This is the innovative aspect of the present research whose results have implications regarding theory, infrastructure and the application of new safety technologies.     

地铁明挖车站-市政桥梁合建结构的关键技术研究

地铁明挖车站和市政桥梁合建时,为同时满足2种不同类型构筑物的安全和使用功能要求,需对其中的关键技术难题进行分析研究,以采取合理可行的结构形式。依托成都地铁白佛桥明挖车站与其上部市政桥梁的建设,总结国内类似工程经验,根据工程特点确定桥梁承台与地铁车站顶板进行固结连接,桥梁跨度与地铁车站框架柱跨进行匹配,同时桥墩避开地铁车站端头井、换乘节点等复杂结构受力区域进行布设; 建立三维荷载-结构模型,计算分析上部桥梁荷载对地铁车站结构构件内力及变形的影响,并根据计算结果,对桥墩影响范围内的车站顶底板和侧墙的厚度及配筋进行增强,桥墩轴线下方的地铁车站框架柱采用型钢-混凝土组合结构,以满足合建结构的承载能力、变形、裂缝控制等要求。另外,选取LS-DYNA软件,采用非线性时程分析法对合建结构进行抗震计算分析,计算结果显示： 车站板、墙、梁等构件在支座处出现应力集中现象,各结构构件的承载力强度及变形均满足规范要求。     

桥、隧、路、堤组合结构应用技术

为解决受周边既有环境影响下隧道出入口的展线难题,依托长沙市营盘路隧道工程实例开展系统性研究。结合桥、隧相连工程的实际特点,提出一种桥、隧、路、堤组合结构方案,并对该方案实施的可行性进行详细分析及阐述。通过运用Plaxis2D有限元软件对组合方案进行受力计算,结果表明: 护壁墙与隧道结构在位移的变化上基本达到协同变形,所设置的联系横、纵梁结构能有效地将护壁墙与隧道结构连接成整体,起到整体受力的作用。同时,在工程施工期间进行现场监测,结果显示： 大堤周边地表累计最大沉降量为15.44 mm,水平最大位移为6.72 mm,实际监测量均小于数值模拟的最大沉降量（21.34 mm）和最大水平位移（8.77 mm）。模拟结果对施工起到一定的指导作用,组合方案在满足承载力要求的前提下,最大限度地保留既有原始地貌,解决了特殊条件下的交通功能问题。     

基于CC工法建造的地下结构受力分析

CC工法作为一种新型地下暗挖技术,为地下工程暗挖施工提供了新的思路,其核心思想是将机械化暗挖小断面结构转换为大断面地下空间建筑结构。为了研究CC工法的结构受力情况,满足CC工法的工法特点需要,使结构安全可靠经济适用,故设计和分析其单元结构和整体结构,并结合CC工法的具体工程应用案例,选取CC工法的3个主要工况进行结构受力分析和设计,得到不同工况的弯剪轴力结果。结果表明： 设计方法和思路较为全面,设计结果安全可靠,能够较好地满足工程需要;同时,研究也为CC工法结构分析和设计提供了方法和依据,为今后相关工程提供了一定的参考。     

某软土地铁车站基坑纵向滑坡事故分析

狭长形地铁车站基坑在分层开挖过程中会形成临时纵向多级边坡。当挖方边坡位于软弱地层时,如果设计或施工不当将会面临基坑纵向失稳风险。针对某软土地铁深基坑纵向滑坡事故案例,在考虑参数变异性的基础上利用极限平衡法对坑内临时边坡展开调查分析,并从工程角度对土坡发生深层滑移破坏的原因进行探讨。调查结果表明： 第1级边坡的坡度是影响整体稳定性的关键因素,1∶1.75（V∶H）的施工坡度不能满足下卧软弱淤泥质土条件下该局部边坡的稳定性（失稳概率高达88.92%）,只有当坡度缓于1∶3时才能保证安全。为防止此类临时挖方边坡失稳,最后给出考虑土体强度参数变异性的最优边坡坡度。     

最小二乘支持向量机-粒子群算法在地下厂房围岩参数反分析中的应用

为准确确定地下厂房围岩的弹性模量、泊松比、黏聚力、内摩擦角、侧压力系数等参数,以正交设计、最小二乘支持向量机和粒子群算法等现代数学方法为基本手段,建立基于位移增量的围岩参数反分析方法。以CCS水电站大型地下厂房为研究背景,通过工程地质条件研究选取8#机组剖面作为分析对象,采用二维弹塑性有限元方法建立地质结构分析模型。以地下厂房洞室群分层开挖多点位移计实测位移增量为依据,对CCS水电站地下厂房区域围岩力学特性及地应力场特征进行反分析。研究结果表明： 主厂房第Ⅵ层与第Ⅰ层开挖和主变室第4层与第1层开挖所产生的位移增量计算值与多点位移计实测值吻合较好,最大相对误差小于10%,说明采用最小二乘支持向量机和粒子群算法相结合的反分析方法在工程上是可行的,且效果较为显著。     

Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China

To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization.